1. Jahlil Okafor C, Duke
Age 19 | H 6-11 | WS 7-5 | W 270
The intersection of Towns’ improvement and lapses in Okafor’s production had many moving Towns to number one at the end of the year. It was enough to get me to re-evaluate who I truly thought was the top pick. After diving into the tape yet again, it became too hard to ignore the fact that Okafor had something special in his game. Okafor had flashes of elite offensive ability that is rare out of any collegiate big man, let alone a freshman.
Okafor should be able to come in right away and contribute on the offensive end. He has an entire repertoire of post moves which constantly demand double teams. Jahlil uses his elite strength to establish low post position and overpower opponents. His quickness and footwork allow him to get past a single defender with ease. Okafor can finish with his right or left hand and displays a surprising amount of patience for a young player. As a rookie he’d only trail Duncan, Gasol, Cousins and Jefferson in terms of pure post-up ability.
If you double him, Okafor will make you pay with his high basketball IQ by finding the open man. His ability to make great passes out of the post has been overlooked. Okafor can truly be the centerpiece of an offense.
But for all the positives on the offensive side, there has been a lot of critique about his defense. While there are certainly lapses in his defensive focus, the concerns seem overblown. In the NCAA tournament, Okafor proved he could lock in and defend when he has to. While it may raise concerns about work ethic, it’s better to have flaws based on focus than ability. If he loses some weight, he can easily be an average to above-average defender in the NBA.
A good role model would be Marc Gasol. He was known as a below average defender coming into the league due to his lack of explosion and athleticism. After learning to use his length and verticality, Gasol became the 2012-13 Defensive Player of the Year.
A proven skill is a hard thing to find in the NBA draft. Not to mention a post game as prolific and complete as the one possessed by Okafor. Okafor is the closest thing to a lock in this draft, and a near certainty to be a 20/10 guy at the next level. Despite his deficiencies on defense, his elite offensive upside is too good to pass on. Because of his advanced post skills, Jahlil has the long-term potential to be a top 5 scorer in the NBA.
2. Karl Towns Jr. PF/C, Kentucky
Age 19 | H 7-0 | WS 7-3 | W 250
The highly touted Towns picked up a lot of steam through the end of the NCAA season. And its for good reason. Earlier in the year, Towns was inhibited by the plethora of talent on Kentucky. With so many mouths to feed, John Calipari was forced to implement a platoon system. As the year went on, and Alex Poythress went down with an injury, Calipari was able to find more minutes for the productive Towns.
It didn’t take long for Kentucky to realize the rebounding and defense that Towns brought to the table. Towns was chosen to anchor the defense, assigned with being the last line of defense. Towns was part of a stifling Kentucky defense that carried an undefeated record to the Final Four. He is also an elite rebounder, which will certainly translate to the next level. Towns uses his strength well and has good box out technique on the defensive end. He is also relentless on the offensive glass, where he constantly got second chance points.
On the offensive side of the ball, Towns brings versatility. While no one particular skill is polished, there is a lot of promise. He displays a good shooting stroke and maybe able to establish an effective three point shot a few years down the road. If nothing else, he should be a threat with a mid-range jumper.
While still raw in the post, Towns displayed an impressive amount of improvement in his one year at Kentucky. He came in with essentially no post moves and developed a formidable right hook and running hook by the end of the year. This amount or improvement in such a short amount of time is encouraging.
There are a few things that worry me. He is a good defender, but his prowess on this end is overstated. How much did it help having Cauley-Stein in front of him? That’s a luxury he won’t have at the next level. Towns lacks ideal explosion for a rim protector. Most of his blocks came when he had time to gather and jump.
He also has slow feet when operating in the post. Towns does a good job of using his strength to create separation down low, but I think his lack of quickness limits his low-post upside.
Towns will certainly be a top big man, although it may take him several years to fully develop. There is a lot of promise in his post game and perimeter shot. Towns will come in right away as an elite rebounder and above average defender. He should be a stronghold on the interior, who can develop into a secondary scorer.
3. Emmanuel Mudiay PG, Guandong (CBA)
Age 19 | H 6-5 | WS 6-8 | W 200
Mudiay opted to spend the year in China over attending SMU for financial reasons. Whether it hurt his draft stock is hard to say before, well, the draft. He is a projected top 4 pick, and the emergence of Okafor and Towns may have pushed him out of the top 2 anyway. However, if he had dominated in the tournament and led SMU deep into the tournament, there may be a different consensus.
For better or worse, Mudiay’s decision has created mystique about his basketball abilities. People fear the unknown, and the Chinese Basketball Association is certainly foreign to American fans and analysts. Statements of Mudiay’s stat lines from the CBA often bring on a litany of questions about the level of competition, rightfully so. The answer is somewhat of a mixed bag – its tough to tell.
The CBA has a bunch of ex-NBA and fringe NBA players in the league, and is obviously a professional basketball league with grown men. However, those NBA type players are absolutely dominant. Andray Blatche averages 30 PPG and 15 RPG while Will Bynum gets 22 PPG and 7 APG. Both of these guys would likely see about half that production in the NBA. The best comparison would be a slight step above NCAA competition, about the NBA D-League.
Now that we have established a baseline, let’s take a look at Mudiay’s production from Guangdong.
| TEAM | G | PTS | 2P% | 3P% | FT% | TRB | AST | BLK | STL | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guangdong | 12 | 18 | 51.40% | 34.20% | 57.40% | 6.3 | 5.9 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 3.3 |
They show that Mudiay is a multifaceted guard who can score, rebound and pass the basketball in a professional league. If you cut those numbers in half, a rookie point guard averaging 9 PPG, 3 RPG and 3 APG isn’t bad. However, Mudiay suffered a sprained ankle that kept him out from the end of November until the playoffs in March. That is a lot of potential progression that was missed (Imagine if Towns had missed that period of time?). The results are a good start, but incomplete.
Mudiay is an imposing physical presence at the point guard position at 6-5 and 200 pounds. He doesn’t believe in wasting natural resources, utilizing both his size and speed to his advantage. Mudiay is a menace in transition, where he is equally likely to drive himself or find an open teammate. His height and strength are also utilized in the post. For a 19-year old point guard, Mudiay is already impressively adept at scoring out of the post (see the dream shake here). He should develop a formidable post game during his career, similar to Dwyane Wade.
It’s no secret that Mudiay can get into the paint and wreak havoc. But what’s most impressive about Mudiay is his selflessness. Once he gets into the paint, or out in transition, he is constantly scanning for open teammates. He’s not just selfless, but a gifted passer with good feel for the game. Mudiay is the most talented pick-and-roll guard in this draft, a very coveted skill in today’s NBA.
The biggest knock on Dr. Congo (yes, that’s his new nickname) is his lack of shooting ability. Yes 57% from the line is horrible, but its a skill that can be improved. Its also worth nothing that his 34% from downtown was from FIBA distance (22’1.75″), not the shorter NCAA distance (20’9″) other players will be judged upon. His mechanics are less than desirable, but can be cleaned up at the next level. An improved shot should make his pick-and-roll game even more dangerous.
Despite his shooting woes and international unknowns, Mudiay is a near elite-level athlete. His athleticism and size as a true point guard give him a very high ceiling at the next level. Mudiay’s pass-first mentality and maturity is a welcome combination to any team. Dr. Congo has the most upside of any lead guard in this draft.
4. D’Angelo Russell PG/SG, Ohio State
Age 19|H 6-5|WS 6-9|W 180
No other prospect made a bigger jump from the beginning of the college basketball year than D’Angelo Russell. Coming out of high school, I was unsure if he would be a point guard or scoring guard. Frankly, I’m still unsure. One thing I know is that he definitively flashed top-level skills of both roles at Ohio State.
For a guy coming into college as a combo guard, Russell proved that he truly can do both. Russell has the best passing and vision of any guard in this draft. That’s saying something for a guy who isn’t a true point guard. Conversely, he has the best pull-up jumper in the draft. There are very few NBA players who can actually tout themselves as elite combo guards. In the past, this designation has been a damnation to mediocrity as a bench scorer. But now there is one comparison that is too glaring to pass up – James Harden.
There’s the obvious typecast, they’re both lefties. I hate this comparison because of that. But they’re games are actually very similar. Both have an elite pull-up jumper that they aren’t afraid to use in transition or over ball-screens. This jumper really opens up their games, as it creates separation necessary to drive and create plays. While I think Mudiay is the superior pick-and-roll operator, Russell is right up there due to his jumper. Neither Russell or Harden is an elite athlete, but use subtle changes of direction to get to the rim. Lastly, both use their scoring ability to open up their playmaking opportunities. Of which both are very good passers who are adept at finding their shooters and big men. But primarily they are scorers.
Now the differences. Harden is a better athlete than Russell. He has better short area burst which helps him to finish in traffic and draw fouls. That brings us to our next difference. One of the things that makes Harden so successful in the NBA is the frequency he gets to the charity stripe. When you get to the free throw line 10+ times per game (and convert over 90%) its going to make scoring 20+ points per game a lot easier. In college Russell attempted 4.5 free throws per game to Harden’s 7.2 at Arizona State. You can also see the lack of aggression Russell shows attacking the rim, relative to Harden. Another big difference you can see is their 2PT% with Russell putting up 47.9% to Harden’s 57% at Arizona State. I attribute this to Harden being the more athletic and stronger player. The lack of easy buckets in Russell’s game is definitely a legitimate concern.
There is also one more concern I have with Russell, although I feel it has been overblown. There is a disparity in his production when he has to face top-60 teams. I’m sure this would be true of most prospects on this list, but the drop in shot percentage here is significant. To keep these stats on the same playing field, I have put them on a per-40 minute line.
Vs. Top-60
| MPG | PTS | FG% | 3P% | TRB | AST | A/T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 20 | 37.08% | 30.30% | 7.8 | 4.9 | 1.75 |
Vs. Non Top-60
| MPG | PTS | FG% | 3P% | TRB | AST | A/T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 25 | 51.38% | 54.65% | 5.6 | 6.4 | 1.65 |
As you can see most of his other stats stay about the same. His rebounding and assist/turnover ratio actually go up against superior competition. But the drop in field goal and three point percentage is a bit troublesome. Was it because of superior talent and size on the other side? Or was it due to Russell being forced to huck up more shots (3 more per 40 minutes) that were more difficult? It’s hard to say if its better competition or defenses focusing in on him. Either way, its information that needs to be out there.
Russell is one of the more polarizing prospects I’ve ever analyzed. I truly believe he can go anywhere from being the best player in this draft to a bust. His swagger certainly isn’t lacking. On one hand is an ultra skilled guard who has the best passing and pull-up jumper in the draft. On the other is a less than ideal athlete, unable to create easy buckets, who is less efficient against stiffer competition. Let’s see how crafty Russell can be.
5. Mario Hezonja SG/SF, FC Barcelona (ACB)
Age 20 | H 6-8 | WS N/A | W 200
Hezonja will be an unknown to the casual fan, and may seem like just another European flier. However, Hezonja is a legitimate NBA prospect playing in the most talented league in Spain. He is the best quick twitch athlete that I have seen come out of the European game. If you plug his name into a YouTube search, you’ll be pleasantly surprised by his highlight reel. The Croatian is an elite athlete, the most athletic wing in this year’s draft.
He combines his elite athleticism with solid, but not great, handle. Its enough for him to isolate slower defenders and essentially blow right by them. Hezonja is most effective in transition where he can really break free. As you’d imagine, he’s a great finisher with or without the ball out in the open. In half-court sets, Hezonja is very good at making backdoor cuts and finishing against bigger opponents.
But its not just athleticism that makes Hezonja so highly rated. He is one of the best shooting prospects in this draft. Hezonja has a quick, high release that he can knock down with a defender in his face. He has deep range, and shot an efficient 38.2% from three in the Euroleague. While more efficient shooting off the pass, he has shown the ability to knock down pull-up jumpers. Combine that with his athleticism, and you have a deadly combination of a guy who can create space for his shot and make it.
Despite his offensive upside, there are some concerns with Hezonja. He’s got the tools to be a good defender, but his effort on that end is driven by his offensive success. Hezonja is certainly not lacking confidence, which should help his transition to the NBA, but he can be selfish at times. While he was productive in his time on the court, he only got about 16 minutes per game. That’s not a lot of tape to get a good feel for his impact on the game. Obviously you’d like more game time to analyze his game and see progression.
At this point, his ceiling is too high to pass on. You could easily take him anywhere from three to six based on his sky high potential. If Hezonja had played in college, or gotten more playing time, he may have been a lock to go higher. With his athleticism, shooting and confidence, expect Hezonja to be a starting wing in the NBA. He is my favorite international player in this draft (sorry Porzingis Kool-Aid drinkers). Hezonja has legitimate superstar potential.
6. Kristaps Porzingis PF, Latvia
Age 19 | H 7-1 | WS 7-6 | W 220
Porzingis better write a personal thank you note to ESPN’s Fran Fraschilla. He’s been revving up the hype machine for Porzingis since he pulled out of the 2014 NBA draft. There’s talk of him even being in the mix for the Knicks at number 4. Despite Fraschilla’s love affair with every international prospect ever, there’s some merit to his infatuation with Porzingis. He has a great combination of athleticism and shot making ability for a seven footer. Based on sheer potential he’s right up there.
The problem is, Porzingis is much farther away from reaching that lofty ceiling than the other top prospects. He is a twig, weighing in at a paltry 220 pounds for a seven footer. If he plays in the NBA this year, he will get absolutely destroyed on defense by opposing big men. Porzingis gets pushed around on the glass, giving up second chance opportunities for the other team.
His lack of size also limits his own success in the post on offense. When pushed out of the paint, Porzingis will at times attempt low percentage shots. While he projects as a stretch four, Porzingis will have to gain weight to cover his interior deficiencies.
There is a ton of upside with Porzingis. He is a top shooter in this draft class, shooting 35.8% from the international three point. And he’s not your typical, immobile seven footer who can hit a wide open three. Porzingis is a legitimate shooter, he can come off screens and get free off pick-and-pops. Rarely do you see a seven footer with this much mobility. Porzingis may be even more mobile that Nowitzki thanks to his athleticism.
The combination of size, skill and mobility could be a nightmare for defenses to match up with. Do you put a smaller defender on him that can follow him around screens? He can shoot over them. If you put a big enough player on him, they may not be able to keep up with him. When he does get the ball in his hands, his shot is pure. He has a quick, smooth release that is nearly unblockable given his height.
Did I mention he’s athletic for his size? Porzingis can really get out and run in transition, creating easy lob opportunities. The same holds true for his pick-and-roll game. Despite being so skinny, Porzingis attacks the rim with aggression. If he puts on another 30 pounds, he can use this aggression to finish more and pick up fouls.
That same athleticism helps him defend the pick-and-roll very well as he’s able to keep up with quicker guards. While he is still raw, Porzingis has shown the ability to take a few dribbles against his man in isolation. To make up for his lack of size, Porzingis will hit turn around jumpers in the post.
If Porzingis reaches his potential, he can be an all-star in the NBA. Its going to take a patient team that is willing to sit through 3-5 years of growing pains. So basically, not the Knicks. The comparison to Dirk does an injustice to his athleticism. He has the upside to be a rim protector on the defensive end and create matchup problems on offense. At this point the reward of his upside is great enough where his risk can be swallowed. I hope we get to see this young man reach his potential.
7. Stanley Johnson SF, Arizona
Age 18 | H 6-7 | WS 6-11 | W 242
I’m of the unpopular opinion that Stanley Johnson is the best college wing in this draft. Johnson has been undervalued due to being part of a balanced Arizona team that got knocked off in the Elite Eight yet again. Let’s do a comparison between incumbent Justise Winslow and Stanley Johnson.
| Player | PTS | FG% | 3P% | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justise Winslow | 12.6 | 48.60% | 41.80% | 64.10% | 6.5 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Stanley Johnson | 13.8 | 44.60% | 37.10% | 74.20% | 6.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
Those stats look similar, don’t they? These two are alot closer than they’re being made out to be. Guess that’s what happens when you win the National Championship. I have been caught in this lure before (see Shabazz Napier last year), and won’t let it happen again. After looking at the tape of both players, Johnson possesses the greater upside.
Johnson is the most physical wing in this draft, as you can see by his 240+ pound listing. For comparison’s sake, Lebron James is 6’8″ and 250 pounds while Draymond Green is 6’7″ and 230 pounds. Are you kidding me? This kid is bigger than Draymond and almost as big as Lebron as a freshman in college. After weighing into the NBA draft combine at 7.5% body fat, its safe to say its healthy weight. Just his sheer size and strength can be a matchup nightmare for opposing wings. It should also give him the versatility to defend the power forward spot at times.
But its not just Johnson’s freakish strength that make him a top prospect. He’s got some skills too. Johnson is a decent creator off the dribble who can get to the rim. When he gets there, he’s somewhat reliant on floaters and finesse shots. Would like to see him impose his size and be more aggressive going at defenders. He can learn this over time. Stanley is also a good shooter with or without the ball. He can hit catch and shoot threes with regularity, showing promising range at Arizona. Johnson can also pull-up short on his drives to bury a mid-range jumper.
Due to his size and length, Johnson has a lot of upside on the defensive end. Stanley usually plays hard on this end of the floor and gives his team versatility. He can essentially guard the 2-4 spots if needed due to his athleticism. Johnson is also a very good rebounder and can pull down even more than his 6.5 RPG would indicate as he had to share the glass with Hollis-Jefferson, Ashley and Tarczewski.
What we saw at Arizona last year is just the tip of the iceberg for Johnson. As he learns to better utilize his elite strength and above-average athleticism, he will become a versatile player on both ends. His ability to shoot and take the ball into the paint, at his size, is a lethal combination. Stanley’s strength and speed will allow him to defend both wings and opposing fours. Johnson should be able to make a few all-star games once he learns to impose his size on both ends.
8. Willie Cauley-Stein C, Kentucky
Age 21 | H 7-0 | WS 7-3 | W 240
Cauley-Stein is the most unique athlete in this year’s draft. He’s the only seven footer I’ve ever seen that can legitimately guard all five positions in the NBA. And I’m not talking, he gets switched on a pick-and-roll and can contain a guard for a possession or two. Cauley-Stein could legitimately stay on a guard all game.
His potential is a super charged Tyson Chandler. An almost entirely one-way player, who can anchor a defense. And forget just being the man in the middle. Need someone to guard Curry, Harden or Durant in a one possession game? Put the ultra athletic Cauley-Stein on that player and see their production go down.
He also can be the best pick and roll defender in the league. An incredibly valuable trait for a league that is so pick-and-roll heavy. His versatility can open up creative defensive strategies, especially come playoff time. Cauley-Stein has the potential to be a game changer from the defensive side of the ball.
Unlike Chandler, he doesn’t look like a completely lost cause from outside of two feet on offense. It was a small sample size, but Cauley-Stein shot 46% from 10-15 feet this year (per Shot Analytics). If he works at it, he can develop a serviceable mid-range jumper. For now, his offensive game is pretty much that of Tyson Chandler or Deandre Jordan. He’s best catching lobs in transition or off the pick-and-roll. For offensive sets that don’t involve him, expect to see Cauley-Stein camping the baseline.
In a league that is becoming smaller and faster, mobile big men are garnering more value. Cauley-Stein could not be entering the league at a more opportune time. Despite his clear deficiencies on offense, Cauley-Stein is a rare physical specimen who can define a team’s defense. Think about the way Draymond Green’s defensive versatility causes problems for other teams. Expect Cauley-Stein to be one of the most dynamic defenders in the league, with a hope of acquiring a mid-range jumper in time.
9. Justise Winslow SF, Duke
Age 19 | H 6-6 | WS 6-10 | W 222
Having Winslow outside of the top-8 seems like blasphemy right now. However, this is where I project his long-term potential. I just don’t think he has the upside of players ranked higher. Despite his limited upside, Winslow will get drafted higher than this because he is a better basketball player right now.
There is certainly lots to like about Winslow’s game. He constantly plays with a high motor, no one will question his work ethic. That makes him a very valuable asset on the defensive end. Winslow already has an NBA body and will compete right away. At 222 lbs, he can fight against bigger forwards, though he does have some issues against quicker wings. Overall, Winslow plays good team defense, doing a good job of rotating over when his teammates get beat. His play and energy are infectious on this end. It helped turn Duke into a premier defensive team, on their way to an NCAA championship last year.
On the offensive end, Winslow is most effective when he is attacking. He’s not the best ball handler, but takes it aggressively on straight drives to the hoop. Justise is very good at moving off the ball and cutting for easy buckets. He is a monster in transition. Winslow has good straight line speed and turns into a wrecking ball once he gets going. He can also use finesse in transition and might have the best euro step in this draft.
One of the more impressive things about Winslow was his shooting development this year. He underwent a serious shooting slump at the beginning of conference play. In a five game stretch, that included losses to NC State and Miami, Winslow shot a putrid 23.3% for just 4.4 PPG. It had college analysts scratching their heads, wondering if his early season success was a fluke. He responded by going on a tear of efficiency. For the rest of the season Winslow shot 53.8% from the field and 51.1% from deep.
My major concern with Winslow is, where does he fit in at the next level? Most of his success offensively came when he was playing power forward at Duke. He’s very strong, but not overly quick. At 6’6″ he would be giving up a height advantage to stretch fours in the NBA. If you put him at small forward, he’s not going to match up well with their quickness. While I think he’ll be alright defensively, it’ll make it harder for him to score.
Speaking of which, I’m not sold on his ability to score at the next level. While he showed a marked improvement in 3PT percentage, his shot has a slow hitch at the top. He’ll have to develop a smoother, quicker release in the NBA. He doesn’t currently have range behind the NBA’s deeper three point line. Winslow will not be creating offense by himself at the next level. Justise will mainly be scoring within the system and in transition. However, he is great at aiding ball movement, knowing where the next pass should go, and making it.
While I believe Winslow has a limited ceiling, and questionable role, he is a great team player. There is no doubt that Justise will come in immediately and have a positive impact on both ends of the floor. He’s the kind of guy who can come in and help change a team’s culture. Winslow’s work ethic and high basketball IQ will be an asset to the team that drafts him.
10. Myles Turner PF/C, Texas
Age 19 | H 6-11 | WS 7-4 | W 240
Turner is an exciting prospect for teams buying into the “new” NBA. He is the rare combination of an interior shot blocker and legitimate outside shooter. The comparison that comes to mind is a Roy Hibbert that stretches the floor on offense. He is very solid defensively, without being a great athlete.
Rick Barnes did not throw Myles into the fire at Texas. He attempted to bring Turner on slowly, but his production in limited minutes was too good to cap for long. Turner quickly became a key part of a Texas frontcourt featuring upperclassmen Cameron Ridley and Jonathan Holmes. His biggest contributions come on the defensive end.
In just 22.2 minutes per game, Turner averaged 2.6 blocks (aka 4.7 blocks per 40 minutes). That was good for 10th in NCAA on a per-40 basis. He was the only freshman on that list, and trailed only two high-major players in Amida Brimah (UConn) and A.J. Hammons (Purdue). Pretty impressive for a freshman who wasn’t starting at the beginning of the year. With his 7’4″ wingspan, I think its safe to say this skill will translate to the next level.
Due to his size, Turner is also a very good rebounder. He averaged 6.5 rebounds in 22 minutes, translating to 11.8 rebounds per minutes. Myles has solid box out technique, but does rely on his height/wingspan a bit, which is normal at this point in his development. He could stand to put on some weight to help him fight against bigger NBA centers.
The unique part of Turner’s game is his shooting ability for a big man. As a freshman, shooting was actually the main part of his game. The majority of his shots came from the mid-range, but he also showed the ability to shoot from beyond the arc. Despite shooting just 27% from downtown, Turner looked comfortable shooting from NBA range. His 83.9% free throw shooting is amazing for his size and youth. It’s a good indicator of his long-term shooting success.
Despite not being the best athlete, Turner brings a lot to the table. His combination of interior defense and shooting ability is invaluable, especially in today’s game. Turner should be develop into a starting center who brings versatility to any NBA team.
11. Cameron Payne PG, Murray State
Age 20 | H 6-2 | WS 6-7 | W 180
The little guard from Murray State is really flying up draft boards, isn’t he? There is a rumor out there that he has a draft promise from sneaky Sam Presti at 14. And if there’s one thing the Thunder do, its deliver on their draft promises. This brings back memories of the promise they gave Reggie Jackson back in 2011. If true it would be a great fit.
What Payne brings to the table is a combination of athleticism, passing and scoring. As a mid-major his talents were most useful to his team as a scorer. Payne is a good shooter with deep range. He can pull-up out of isolation or over the top of pick-and-rolls. He is also good at getting to the paint with his above-average quickness and handle. This is his primary source of generating offense. Once there he is more likely to look to pass or throw up a tear-drop or floater than go hard to rim. This is more a matter of his smaller frame than a lack of length, of which Payne has an impressive 6’7″ wingspan.
While he was primarily a scorer at Murray State, Payne also displayed great passing skills. As a score first threat, he usually was the primary target of defenses anywhere he went. This opened up gap and space for his teammates, which he skillfully took advantage. While Payne is particularly adept at using the pick-and-roll, he can also beat his man in isolation to get into the paint. Once there, he can drop-off passes to his big men and find open shooters. Payne will often pass his teammates open by leading them to open space on the floor where there are creases in the defense.
It’s a real shame that Murray State didn’t make the tournament because it would have been exciting to see Payne go head-to-head against the best competition. His stats are obviously a bit inflated because he played for a mid-major. But let’s not forget, Payne led his Murray State team to a 29-6 record and top-25 ranking in March. How they missed the tournament is beyond me. These mid-major guards hit more often than people expect (remember Damian Lillard?). Payne should be a starter or sixth-man caliber player
12. Kelly Oubre SF, Kansas
Age 19 | H 6-7 | WS 7-2 | W 205
Oubre is the most talented wing from this year’s college class. Obviously, he’s also the most undeveloped. It was clear from the beginning of the year that Oubre’s talent was limited by his lack of skill. The Kansas Jayhawks had high expectations this year when they landed two of the top-6 prospects in Oubre and Alexander. However, early excitement was quelled when Bill Self benched Oubre for the first month of the college basketball season.
The point is that Oubre was not ready to star in college basketball this year. And he likely won’t be ready for the NBA next year. He is a multi-year investment for the team that drafts him. But teams should be drafting for the future. It’s going to take a committed coach at the next level to help Oubre reach his All-Star potential. There are a lot of tools to work with. Oubre has good size, and an elite wingspan of 7’2″ at the small forward position. He’s a smooth athlete for his size, and has a good shooting stroke from outside.
While inconsistent, Oubre can catch fire and really fill it up from beyond the arc. Despite averaging just 9.3 points per game, he had three games where he scored 20+ points. He is most effective when catching and shooting. Oubre’s very good at trailing the ball handler in transition and hitting shots at the top of the key. Sometimes he’ll disappear on offense. He needs to become more reliable to get serious minutes at the next level.
One area that is overlooked is his rebounding. On a per-40 minute basis he actually out-rebounded Johnson (9.1 RPG) and Winslow (8.9 RPG) with an impressive 9.5 RPG. He is able to use his ridiculous wingspan to wreak havoc on the glass, reaching above bigger bodied opponents. Oubre also uses his length to get into passing lanes and disrupt shooters. But he needs to more consistent on the defensive end as well. One play he’ll get in the passing lane and steal the ball, the next he’ll let up an easy layup. The potential to be a very good on-ball defender is there, but only in flashes so far.
If Oubre were more developed, he’d be higher in my rankings. I wouldn’t expect him to make an impact in year one, likely taking three or more years to become a dependable starter. He showed flashes on both offense and defense of what he can do. The tools are all there, but I’m not sure if he’ll be able to put them altogether. If he does, Oubre will undoubtedly be an all-star. Otherwise I see him being a bench scorer. The team that drafts him should be confident in their development staff.
13. Devin Booker SG, Kentucky
Age 18 | H 6-6 | WS 6-8 | W 206
Devin Booker may very well be the best shooter in this class. It’s a tossup between him and Hezonja. That’s great news for Booker. The sharpshooter enters the draft just after NBA executives got done watching the shot reliant Warriors lift the Larry O’Brien. Booker would have be a lottery talent in any draft. But this year, he may be riding the recent shooting trend into the top-10.
Make no mistake, Booker is a deserving lottery pick. He has prototypical size for a shooting guard at 6’6″ and is a solid 206 pounds. And he’s the youngest player in this draft, still just 18 years old. He doesn’t turn 19 until the NBA season starts. The fact that he already has an NBA body is insane. Booker’s skills are NBA ready as well.
Booker may have the best shooting stroke in this draft. He has a high, compact release that he can get off quickly. He’s almost never off balance when shooting the ball. At this point, Booker is more comfortable in catch and shoot situations, although he has shown the ability to pull-up over defenders to bury jumpers. Booker maintains concentration throughout the shot, even with a defender closing out. The results are there too. He shot 41.1% on 3.7 3PT attempts, in just 21.5 minutes per game.
While Booker isn’t the best athlete, he doesn’t have to be. It’s simply not a big part of his game. But he’s athletic enough to check-in as an average defender. Booker is quick enough to attack the inevitable closeout drawn from his shooting ability. When he gets the basket, he’s an above average finisher thanks to his height.
I generally don’t like making comparisons, but he does have a Klay Thompson feel. I’m not sure he’ll ever become the defender that Thompson is, but he has that kind of offensive upside. For an 18 year old, his skill level and poise are advanced. Booker should come in right away and be an effective bench scorer, or even starter. He should be a long-term starter, and one of the better shooters in the NBA for years to come.
14. Chris McCullough PF, Syracuse
Age 20 | H 6-9 | WS 7-3 | W 199
Think this is too high for McCullough? Why? The draft drops due to ACL tears in all sports are becoming the newest form of draft arbitrage. McCullough was widely considered a lottery selection prior to his ACL tear in January. Obviously missing half of the year hurts his progression. The counterpoint to him getting injured earlier in the college season is that he should be back by the beginning of the NBA season. Based on the success rate of ACL recoveries, I don’t think this should knock a talent like McCullough out of the lottery, and definitely not out of the 1st round.
Let’s get to the abilities that merit McCullough as a lottery talent. He is extremely athletic for a power forward. If not for Cauley-Stein, he would be the most athletic big man in this draft. He can really get up and down the floor in transition. McCullough also showed good potential as a defender. Thanks to his athleticism and wingspan, he was able to bother shots inside. He has decent shot blocking instincts, but definitely needs more reps. For a big man, McCullough shows great instincts getting into passing lanes, as evidences by his 1.7 steals per contest.
McCullough often used his athleticism to make up for his lack of strength on the interior. While he has good box-out technique, he did get pushed around a bit on the block. But he is a quick leaper. Pairing that with his 7’3″ wingspan, McCullough was often able to beat his opponents in the air to the ball. Seven rebounds per contest isn’t bad for a freshman power forward weighing 199 pounds.
Other than his elite athleticism, McCullough showed potential to spread the floor. He has a good looking mid-range jumper that he was able to connect on 33% of the time. Not bad for a freshman who only played 16 games. He still has a long way to go before it’s a reliable option, but has a good foundation.
Even before the injury, McCullough had his flaws. He’s at a meager weight for his size and position, weighing less than many of the wings in this draft. However, he has a good frame and should be able to fill out in an NBA strength program. In fact, the time recovering from his ACL could be used as an opportunity to work on his strength. His skill level also needs some fine tuning. He’s at least three years from developing into a starter.
Had he not gotten injured, McCullough would have been a lottery pick, so that’s where I’m ranking him. McCullough’s athleticism, and shooting foundation, give him a very high ceiling. Other than missed progression opportunity, his ACL tear should not impact his ability to produce in the NBA. On talent alone, McCullough shouldn’t be selected much lower than this. However, he will likely fall into the 20’s due to his injury.
15. Christian Wood PF, UNLV
Age 19 | H 6-11 | WS 7-3 | W 216
Christian Wood may be the most underrated player in this draft. He is definitively a lottery talent, whose ceiling is top-10 worthy. The problem is that he is very raw. Other than Porzingis, he may be the biggest boom/bust candidate in the draft.
Wood has a tremendous frame to build on at 6’11”, with a 7’3″ wingspan. Despite being relatively frail at 216 pounds, Wood is aggressive. At times, Wood uses his athleticism to grab a rebound and go coast-to-coast. Not sure he’ll be able to get away with this in the NBA. Even without the ball, he is a good runner in transition. When he gets near the restricted area, he’s able to explode to the rim with force. That is, when he decides to attack. A lot of his shots come from the perimeter.
Wood shows pretty good form and touch on his outside shot, especially for his size. Despite only shooting 28.4% from deep, Wood connected on 73.6% of his free throws. His shooting potential is there, and his percentages should increase with repetition. Wood’s athleticism really comes into play when attacking closeouts. Wood is pretty adept at beating his defender with one or two dribbles thanks to his very long strides. Once at the rim he’ll usually finish, given his size and aggression.
He’ll have to work on his strength as a smaller, quicker defender can take away his face-up game. The counter should be a strong post-up, which Wood currently lacks in his game. Once in good post position, he shows solid footwork and finishing ability. The challenge with him is establishing good position. The added strength would also help on the defensive end. He is a good shot blocker, but can get bullied at times in the paint.
There is definitely a lot of work to do as Wood is a raw project at this point. He flashed shooting ability and is aggressive when around the rim. Woods’ superior frame and athleticism, combined with his motor, are great tools. It’s strange to refer to Wood as a “project” as he was productive at UNLV last year with 15.7 PPG and 10 RPG as a sophmore. However, he got by on sheer size and athletic advantages. Woods will have to add strength and skill to find success at the next level. He is my favorite boom/bust player in this draft, and a clear lottery talent.
16. Trey Lyles PF, Kentucky
Age 20 | H 6-10 | WS 7-1 | W 241
The one player who was simultaneously hurt and helped the most by Kentucky’s platoon system was Trey Lyles. I know that doesn’t make sense, but hear me out. Lyles’ draft stock was likely hurt the most because he was forced to play out of position. He is a true power forward, but due to the presence of Towns and Cauley-Stein, he was forced to man the small forward position on the perimeter. Its impressive how willing and able he was to make this adjustment.
However, I believe this position change actually helped to add versatility to Lyles’ game. By being forced out onto the perimeter, Lyles had to learn to knock down mid-range jumpers and attack closeouts with consistency. As a wing he was also expected to be a key part of the passing and transition game. At the next level, this should make Lyles a lot more comfortable with operating a face-up game far from the basket. Add this new found ability to his existing capabilities as a post-up four, and you have a versatile forward.
Lyles is not a game changing athlete, but is very mobile for his size and position. Out of face-up situations, he has become particularly adept at driving. He can knockdown mid-range jumpers, making him a roll or pop option off the pick. His back to the basket game is solid, but will require some fine-tuning. Lyles has a high basketball IQ, able to make the correct pass or cut to keep the offense moving. That can’t be understated, he plays team basketball. While I don’t think he has the upside to be an upper echelon player in this league, he should be a very important starter or role player.
17. Bobby Portis PF, Alabama
Age 20 | H 6-11 | WS 7-2 | W 246
Portis is one of my favorite prospects in this draft. He brings an all-around game and a great work ethic to the table. His production was recognized this year when he was named the SEC player of the year. You know the conference with that Kentucky team. The one that has four potential lottery picks in this year’s draft.
Outside of Okafor and Towns, Portis may be the safest big man in the draft. It’s pretty much a lock that he will be at least a role player in the NBA. That’s not to say there’s no upside, but he’s got a low floor. That’s part of what makes him attractive to teams just outside the lottery. They made the playoffs last year, so may be looking for more immediate impact players like Portis. He still has upside to develop into a solid starter as well.
The thing that stands out about Portis is his versatility. On offense, he was able to stretch the floor for Arkansas. Bear in mind he only only attempted 1 per game, but was 46.7% from downtown. Factor that in with his 73.7%, and we can see that Portis has a solid shooting touch. In fact, over half of his attempts came from outside the paint. The majority of his shooting was done from mid-range where Portis was a respectable 38%. Portis is an average post player for his age. He does not have many advanced moves in his repertoire, but can execute simple post-ups. His size and strength allow for him to get easy points in the paint.
On the defensive side, Portis was the key to Arkansas’ zone. He played at the top of their defense, utilizing his length and lateral agility to put pressure on the other team’s ball handlers. Portis has solid quickness and can hedge well on pick-and-rolls. He has both the size and strength to stay with opposing big men on the block. Due to his high motor, and physical traits, Portis is an asset on defense. He is also a very good rebounder at this stage. Not afraid to get physical and mix it up when fighting for rebounding position. His lack of explosion limits him on the offensive glass.
Outside of the top two picks, Portis is the safest big man in this draft. He brings a combination of polish and versatility to the floor. While his upside is somewhat limited, he has starter potential in the NBA. At the very least he will be a good role player for years. Look for him to have a similar role as Taj Gibson at the next level.
18. Rondae Holllis-Jefferson F, Arizona
Age 20 | H 6-7 | WS 7-2 | W 211
The old adage basketball adage “You can’t teach height” should be accompanied by “You can’t teach athleticism”. In a league that is becoming increasingly positionless, Hollis-Jefferson fits the mold of the ideal rotational player.
Hollis-Jefferson is an absolute freak athlete, who ranks second among wings to Hezonja, in that regard. He combines that athleticism with hard work to represent as one of the best defenders in this class. His on-ball defense will give him a role as soon as he enters the league. With a 7’2″ wingspan, and elite quick twitch leaping ability, Hollis-Jefferson is a nightmare defensive assignment on the wing. His long term potential to be a lock-down defender coincides with his ranking.
Skill wise, he will have to improve. Hollis-Jefferson has absolutely no outside shot which will keep him on the bench to start his NBA career. While he shoots a solid 70.7% from the line, he’s a putrid 20.7% from downtown. Seriously, he’s one of the worst outside shooters in this draft regardless of position. The day he gets drafted, Hollis-Jefferson should get in the gym with a shooting coach.
He also doesn’t have the ability to create plays off the dribble. His offense is currently limited to off-ball cuts and straight line drives. One of the best ways that Hollis-Jefferson creates offense is on the glass. In his 28.7 minutes per contest, Hollis-Jefferson grabbed 2 O-boards. Not bad for a small forward. He’s relentless on the offensive glass and simply will not give up on an offensive possession. Hollis-Jefferson’s ability to keep plays alive, and overall energy, can provide a spark to his team.
After watching Andre Iguodala’s importance in this year’s NBA championship, I may be overvaluing Hollis-Jefferson a bit. However pure athleticism like Hollis-Jefferson’s is hard to find. The recent surge of talented wings in the NBA gives guys like Iguodala great value. Expect Hollis-Jefferson to be one of the better perimeter defenders in the NBA. If he can develop a semblance of an offensive game, he’ll be an invaluable piece to a winning NBA team.
19. Sam Dekker SF, Wisconsin
Age 21 | H 6-9 | WS 6-11 | W 219
What exactly will Sam Dekker be at the next level? Honestly, its hard to tell. I find myself oscillating between him having positional versatility and no defined role. Not quite sure if his ambiguity is a good or bad thing. One thing is for sure, when Dekker was on, he was one of the most dangerous players in college basketball. He flipped a switch in the NCAA tournament, and helped carry Wisconsin to the NCAA title game.
That’s the thing about Dekker, he is either really on, or he is not. I have yet to see him produce consistently at a high level. In fact, last year’s tournament run may be the longest stretch of play I’ve seen like that from him.
The upside of Dekker is really a bonafide role player. He did not show the kind of scoring potential at Wisconsin that warrants a lottery pick. He does have good size and athleticism, but can rarely create his own shots. Though he does hit a step-back jumper from time-to-time, Dekker doesn’t have an efficient shot he can create on a consistent basis. On the season, Dekker averaged just 13.9 points in his 31 minutes per game as a Junior. While Dekker has good form on his shot, he was generally ineffective from 3PT until the tournament. He shot just 33.1% from three this season.
Due to his size, at 6’9″, and athleticism, Dekker can get away with playing both the 3 and 4 in the NBA. That could be key when teams want to go small ball by plugging him in at the 4. He should be able to use his speed to get by NBA power forwards. Dekker is also very good on the defensive end, perhaps underrated in this regard. While he’s not an elite defender, he would be the best wing defender on a handful of NBA teams.
While I am wary about Dekker’s ability to score, his versatility on offense and defense can open up a lot of lineups for an NBA team. To be truly effective, he’ll have to be more efficient from beyond the arc. At this point in the draft, there’s not too many high upside guys left, so adding a role player like Dekker makes sense.
20. Kevon Looney PF, UCLA
Age 19 | H 6-9 | WS 7-3 | W 220
Looney is an intriguing prospect at power forward. He is not as athletic as some of the other forwards in this draft, but has high upside. Kevon gets by on a combination of length, production and skill.
For a freshman, Looney was very productive for a UCLA team that advanced to the Sweet 16 in the NCAA tournament. He nearly averaged a double-double with 11.6 points and 9.2 rebounds in 30 minutes per game. That’s a big burden to point on a freshman big man, but Looney delivered. One of the most important roles that Looney fulfilled for UCLA was floor spacing. With the behemoth of a man in Tony Parker manning the paint, Looney was asked to shoot from the outside. He was very efficient, hitting 41.5% of his 3PT attempts. Albeit, he only took 1.5 per game, but still the limited success is promising.
At this stage, Looney has established himself as a very good rebounder, which should translate to the NBA. He’s excellent at creating an seal and boxing out his opponent. As is expected with a freshman in college, Looney would improve with added strength. His long arms help make up for his lack of explosion in vying for boards.
On defense, Looney is solid in defending the pick-and-roll as he is mobile for his size. He is best suited to guard face-up power forwards, but could spend some time on bigger wings. While he’s a decent rim protector, his lack of explosion gets exposed on this end from time to time. He’ll likely be an average to above-average defender in the NBA.
Looney offers a unique set of skills for a power forward. He is already a good rebounder and displayed the ability to stretch the floor in college. Kevon is mobile enough to defend the NBA’s greatest weapon, the pick-and-roll. Due to his lack of athleticism, I think Looney’s upside is likely capped at being average starter or great bench player.
21. Robert Upshaw C, Washington
Age 21 | H 7-0 | WS 7-5 | W 258
This is the absolute lowest I could drop Upshaw, in good conscience. He’s going lower in just about every mock draft. I get it. Despite his talent, Upshaw clearly has the brightest red flags of anyone in this draft. But in basketball talent is more important than any other sport. Upshaw is the third most talented center in this draft, so why is he outside of my top 20?
Well, Upshaw has problems staying on the floor. He has only posted two college seasons, yet looks like he’s old enough to be a senior. That’s because he is. Upshaw was originally the crown jewel of his recruiting class at Fresno State. After a promising start to his freshman year, trouble starting a brewing for Upshaw. In a five-week span, Upshaw got suspended twice, before eventually ticking off his third strike and getting kicked off the team.
Upshaw had to sit out the next year while transferring to Washington. Upon his arrival, he showed the immense talent he had. Upshaw recorded 10.9 points, 8.2 rebounds and an impressive 4.5 blocks in his 24.9 minutes on the court per game. Things were starting to come together, and Upshaw’s NBA stock was rising. Then trouble struck again. Just a day after dominating Utah’s Jakob Poeltl, Upshaw was abruptly kicked off Washington’s team for undisclosed reasons.
“It’s been a long process. I’ve had a lot of education around drugs and alcohol. A lot of things I’ve been through, I haven’t kept them a secret. I’ve just been working on myself with a team of people that are close to me to have structure and success at the next level.”
– Robert Upshaw
His comments at the NBA draft combine shed some light on his issues in college. The fact that he got kicked off two schools, in two eligible years, is quite troubling.
Nonethless, Upshaw has immense talent, and is a legitimate starting center in the NBA. His 7’5″ wingspan, shot blocking ability and mobility have scouts salivating. It will be up to teams to decide if he has gained maturity and insight from his past experiences. If a team can instill maturity in Upshaw, they will be rewarded with a defensive anchors for years to come.
22. Jerian Grant PG, Notre Dame
Age 22 | H 6-4 | WS 6-7 | W 198
Jerian Grant could be one of the steals of this draft. The late surge of Cameron Payne has relegated Grant’s position on the point guard food chain.
I don’t think any player was hurt more by the NCAA tournament than Grant. By the end of the regular season, Grant was in contention for player of the year. After all, he was the best player, and orchestrator, on the best offense in college basketball.
However, a disappointing tournament by Grant personally hurt his stock a bit. Not to mention his last two possessions against Kentucky are burned into everyone’s minds. (Cauley-Stein should send him a thank you card). Even besides that, I would have liked to see more aggression from him in the tournament.
Still Grant has a lot going for him. He’s big and athletic for a point guard, and has above-average vision. In terms of pure passing ability, he probably ranks around sixth in this draft. But his physical attributes help make up the difference. He is able to finish very well when he gets to the rim, making him a good pick-and-roll threat. This past season he also showed the ability to shoot over the top when the defender went under the screen. Grant proved a capable lead man, often finding the open shooter in a ball movement offense.
Grant is a solid defender, averaging 2 steals per game at Notre Dame. At times, Grant could get beat by quicker ball handlers. But overall, he is able to keep his man in front of him. Grant also helps out on the boards a bit, bringing in 3 boards per game.
In stretches, Grant was absolutely dominant for Notre Dame. He had great games against Michigan State and Duke, so he’s done it against quality teams. Unfortunately, he came up short when it mattered against Kentucky. For Grant to be successful he will need to improve his three point shot and stay aggressive consistently. Expect to see Grant as a quality backup guard, with the potential to be a low-end starter.
23. Frank Kaminsky PF/C, Wisconsin
Age 22 | H 7-0 | WS 6-11 | W 242
Yeah I know that Kaminsky’s draft floor seems to be Charlotte and 9, and his ceiling the Knicks at 4. I’m also aware that Frank Kaminsky is the reigning NCAA player of the year who led Wisconsin to two straight Final Fours and last year’s championship game.
None of that makes me believe he’s a top 10 talent in this draft. That doesn’t mean I don’t like his game. I just don’t think he is a starter on a good team. However, Kaminsky could be a great 6th or 7th man on a quality team. He certainly brings a lot to the table.
No player improved more from his freshman to senior years. Even the jump he made from his Junior to Senior year seemed enormous. Kaminsky went from a secondary scoring option to possibly the best go to scorer in college basketball. His blend of shooting and post-up ability allowed him to score against nearly any opponent. Kaminsky also showed solid ability to take the ball off the dribble against bigger players.
The reason for my ranking is I don’t think his scoring will translate seamlessly to the NBA. Obviously, he should continue to be a very good 3PT shooter. It is one of his best attributes, and what makes him attractive to NBA teams. His ability to play the 4 or 5, and hang around the three point line provides optimal spacing. However, I think his ability to drive on guys will go away. Also, given his lack of strength and athleticism, I’m not sure how effective he’ll be in the post. His post moves are polished, but given the length and athleticism in the NBA, he won’t be able to rely on them as often.
The lack of athleticism will also leave him exposed on the defensive side of the ball. Quicker athletes at the NBA level should be able to blow right by him. The bigger, more athletic guards will be hard to stop as he gets minimal lift to protect the rim. Really, this is the main reason I have him ranked here. His offense will continue to be an asset, but he will be a liability on the other end.
While I like the Tank’s game, I just don’t see him as a two-way player worthy of a top-10 selection. He should be a quality first or second guy off the bench who should instantly increase scoring with his ability to space the floor.
24. Delon Wright PG, Utah
Age 23 | H 6-5 | WS 6-7 | W 181
There is nothing that stands out about Delon Wright’s game. Yet that’s part of what makes him so special. Wright can positively impact the game without being the focal point. He is just a solid all-around player who helps his team get wins.
The best part of Wright’s game is his defensive attributes. At 6’5″, with a 6’7″ wingspan, Wright is massive for a point guard. He uses this size to get into passing lanes and disrupts the opponents’ offensive flow. His play was one of the main reasons Utah was a top defensive team last year. Wright is also a very good rebounder from the point guard spot, grabbing 4.9 per game.
On offense, he is a solid lead guard. There’s nothing particularly flashy about this part of his game. Wright isn’t a great athlete, but has good size that helps him to finish over big men in the lane. He isn’t a strong finisher, but has a very good floater. Wright has good vision, and is able to make all the passes thanks to his height.
While there’s no crazy upside, Delon Wright is a very solid NBA guard. Wright is one of the better defensive guards in this draft. Unlike most players who have the “potential” to be a good defender, he already is. Wright uses his height and craftiness on offense to be a solid scorer. He should be a fringe starter at the next level, akin to the modern day version of Shaun Livingston.
25. Jarell Martin PF, LSU
Age 20 | H 6-9 | WS 6-10 | W 239
Martin is a gritty player, who won’t back down from his opposition. The turning point in my analysis of him came in LSU’s showdown with Kentucky. Faced with the toughest interior defense in the country, Martin responded. He posted 21 points and 11 rebounds against Kentucky’s interior. They lost the game 71-69, but Martin’s dominance put them in a position to win.
He’s not an exceptional athlete, but Martin just finds a way to get the job done. Most of his scoring is done on the interior, but he actually has a decent mid-range jumper. Primarily, though, he is a bruiser in every sense of the word. Jarrell controls the the interior, and can affect shots without blocking them.
This is more of a grits and grind pick player. Martin will not be wowing us on SportsCenter with top 10 plays. Instead, he will battle it out underneath. He reminds me most of a Zach Randolph type player. Tough interior player and rebounder, who can gain a dependable mid-range jumper in a few years.
26. Sir’Dominic Pointer G/F, St. Johns
Age 23| H 6-5 | WS 6-8 | W 189
Pointer has been counted out his whole career, so it’s no surprise he’s getting no love come draft time. His first three years, Pointer was a disappointment. As part of the vaunted St. John’s recruiting class, he was supposed to be a key contributor. Instead he floundered, averaging just 6.5 PPG his first three years there. It looked like any NBA future was gone.
Then he came back his senior year with a purpose. Pointer was the heart and soul of a solid St. John’s team last year, leading them defensively. He was one of the better wings I’ve seen in terms of blocking shots. In one game against Creighton he had three blocks on one play. Can’t remember the last time I’ve seen small forward to that. And it wasn’t an anomaly, Pointer averaged 2.4 blocks per game to go with his 1.9 steals. That’s unbelievable for a small forward. He may end up being the best defender in this draft. Another overlooked part of Pointer’s game, is his rebounding. Playing the power forward position in St. John’s lineup, Pointer averaged 7.7 rebounds per game.
The offensive side of the ball is what has many so down on Pointer. Due to his athleticism, Pointer is good in transition, where he is aggressive attacking the rim. Last year, he spent most of his time around the free throw line where he would take a mid-range jumper or drive. I don’t think he would have a similar role at the pro level. In the NBA, he’ll likely be limited to cuts and straight line drives. The real deterrent here is Pointer’s outside shooting. He shot a god awful 8% from 3PT last year. If he’s going to have a regular role in the NBA, that cannot happen.
Despite his shooting problems, I believe Pointer is worth taking a risk on. He’s almost like a Kawhi Leonard Lite. He has good size for small forward and is a very good athlete. Pointer is very active on the defensive end, and should be one of the better defensive players in this draft. To be a consistent role player, he will have to work on his outside shot.
27. Montrezl Harrell PF/C, Louisville
Age 21 | H 6-8 | WS 7-3 | W 240
Everything about Harrell’s game makes me want to rank him higher. His game is something that every team could use. Despite being undersized as a 6’8″ power forward, Harrell plays every possession like its his last. No one in this draft has a better motor than Harrell on the floor.
His motor powers one of the most explosive trains in the draft. Montrezl has some of the best raw athleticism and power that I’ve seen coming out of college in awhile. He is legitimately scary in transition. If I was in a two-on-one, and saw the ball lobbed to Harrell, I’d run out of the gym. His dunks have that vicious, take no prisoners kind of feel. Harrell uses these same traits to be a menace on defense. Despite being undersized for a power forward at 6’8″, Harrell makes up for it on the defensive end with his 7’3″ wingspan. He’s better at providing weak-side help, but is sufficient defending the post. Harrell is a good rebounder, but can get outmuscled by bigger frontlines, as we saw against Kentucky last year.
While he did add some offensive flavor to his game this past season, it likely won’t be enough at the next level. His post work is decent, but not great, considering he is undersized for a power forward. While his wingspan helps to get off shots against bigger opponents, he’ll need more than that. For Harrell to stay on the floor, he’s going to need to develop a mid-range shot. It will help him turn into more of a face-up player. Then he can utilize his athleticism against opposing big men and take them off the dribble.
It’s tough to rank Harrell this low, as he’s one of my favorite players in this draft. He brings instant energy to his team, which will make him a great rotational player. I doubt he ever gets more than 25 minutes a game, due to his offensive limitations. But Harrell will make the most of his minutes on the floor.
28. Rashad Vaughn SG, UNLV
Age 18 | H 6-5 | WS 6-7 | W 199
Vaughn is sort of an awkard player to analzye. On the one hand you had an incredibly productive freshman year, averaging 17.8 points and 4.8 rebounds per game. You’d think that kind of usage for a freshman would lead to inefficiency, but it didn’t. He was able to shoot 43.9% from the field and 38.3% from three. All while keeping his turnovers to just 2.2 per game.
The thing is, I’m not sure how he translates to the NBA exactly. The shooting ability obviously will, but there’s nothing else that pops out offensively. He was very good at taking the ball to the rack in college, but he’s not overly quick or strong. At 6’5″, Vaughn is an average size for a starting shooting guard.
I do see the appeal. Entering the draft, he is just 18 years old and was able to put up big points his freshman year. His outside shooting for such a young age is impressive. Unlike Booker, however, Vaughn has a slower and more unconventional release. It won’t be as effective at the next level as Booker’s will. Still, at his age, there’s plenty of time to clean up is mechanics.
In spite of his young age, Vaughn doesn’t possess great athleticism to build upon. That is the only reason I don’t have him higher in the draft, I believe his potential is capped. Still that doesn’t limit him from becoming a very strong scorer in the NBA. His upside is scoring in the 15-18 PPG game range. I think it’s more likely he’s a bench scorer than starter, but Vaughn has time on his side.
29. R.J. Hunter SG, Georgia State
Age 21| H 6-6 | WS 6-10 | W 185
R.J. Hunter is everyone’s favorite guy who didn’t shoot well in college (30.5% from 3PT last year) but will in the pros. To a certain extent, I see their point. His first two years at college were much more successful. Hunter was a career 35.4% shooter at Georgia State. Last year, he was being keyed on by defenses and was taking a lot of poor, off-balance shots. An adjustment in his shot selection should provide an immediate increase in his shooting percentage.
Hunter has a good shooting stroke, but he’s very streaker. He reminds me of a Jamal Crawford, without the ball handling and driving ability. If Hunter gets hot, you’re probably going to win. If not, go to the bench because it’s going to be a long night for him. But those type of guys are great to have on your roster for the long haul. If you’re team is having an off-night, you can throw Hunter in and watch him do damage from deep.
Hunter isn’t very quick, so he’ll have issues with faster guards on the perimeter. However, he has very good size for the position, which should help him on defense. Despite being 6’6″, Hunter is not great when attacking the rim. He is a paltry 185 pounds and will really need to bulk up in the NBA. Unless he puts on some weight, I don’t see him finishing at the rim much. R.J. Hunter should be able to provide big-time shooting numbers from the bench, and fill a Lou Williams type of role.
30. Tyus Jones PG, Duke
Age 19 | H 6-2 | WS 6-5 | W 185
Let me start off by saying that I love the way Jones plays point guard. As a freshman, he displayed poise beyond his years. Despite being gifted an extraordinary Duke team, any other freshman point guard would not have led them to a national championship. His ability to balance the best big man in the country in Okafor, a senior leader in Cook and the “I play defense, so deserve offense” guy in Winslow. Not many point guards in the country, let alone freshmen, could handle that.
So then why is he so low on my rankings? The NBA is a faster, more athletic game. Unfortunately, Jones has neither the speed, size or athleticism to be amongst the better lead guards in the league. Especially with the plethora of point guard talent in today’s game. That doesn’t mean Jones can’t be a good NBA player. In fact, I think he’ll make a very solid bottom tier starter or backup point guard.
What Jones does have is great intangibles and passing ability. His ability to distribute the ball effectively at Duke is a big testament to his basketball IQ. When he’s not distributing, Jones is actually a pretty good supplemental scorer. He shot 37.9% from three as a freshman, which helps keep defenders honest in the pick-and-roll.
To be honest its a shame that Jones doesn’t have more athleticism or size. He is a very heady player whose skillset fits the bill for what the function of a point guard really should be. Jones’ ability to control the tempo of the game, and get his guys involved, is what sets him apart. His outside shooting, and finesse inside the lane helps keep defenders honest. Jones should be in the NBA for awhile.