Who is your MVP Pick at this point in the season?
[Rob]
I picked Giannis before the season started, and nothing I’ve seen since has changed my opinion. In fact, Budenholzer’s revitalized Bucks team only reinforces it. The only thing you could hold against Giannis in recent years was the middling success of his team. Now? The Bucks sit at 10-3 with the best point differential in the NBA, and look like a lock to finish top-3 in the East.
Individually, he checks all the boxes. Top 5 usage rate in the NBA, 25+ PER, improved his rebounding and assist numbers, best FG% of his career. At this point, his biggest competition is Anthony Davis. Everyone else has superstar teammates that will negate some of their accomplishments come voting time. And while AD will probably have more monster stat lines this year than Giannis, I’m going to trust the team success and durability of Giannis over the injury-prone Davis.
[Jared]
Giannis Antetokounmpo.
There are several good candidates in the league at this point. Every year a case can be made for LeBron James, and this year is no exception. Stephen Curry is on an absolute tear shooting nearly 50% from three. Kawhi Leonard has transformed Toronto’s defense.
But none of them feel like they have quite the impact that Antetokoumpo does for Milwaukee. Playing power forward full-time, Giannis has been unstoppable on the court and in the box score. Staying true to his nickname, the Greek Freak is having his way with the NBA, averaging 25.8 points, 12.7 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game on a ridiculous 56% from the field. He looks to be on a collision course with the title of best player in the league. Tough to do with density of superstar players at the top, but Giannis is seemingly a jump shot away from true invulnerability.
Let’s be fair and give Budenholzer some credit here. The Bucks are not the #2 seed in the East by accident, and he’s certainly had a hand here. Still as Jeff Van Gundy has often stated, this is a player’s league. Budenholzer can prop up teams in the regular season at will, but needs a player like Antetokounmpo to truly challenge for postseason supremacy. He seems up to the challenge on a team with a solid yet underwhelming supporting cast.
The East sans LeBron has some storylines after all…
Which second year player has taken the biggest leap?
[Jared]
De’Aaron Fox.
Don’t look now, but the Kings actually have a winning record (8-6) and currently sit as the 8th seed in the West. Will it last? Probably not. But the Kings having a winning record at any point in a season during the post-Bibby era feels like a miracle.
There are multiple players over performing to help the Kings reach an above .500 record, but none more impressive than Fox. He is averaging a team high 18.7 points per game, up from a solid 11.6 his rookie year. More impressive, he’s doing it on just two more shots per game. The majority of the reason is due to his vastly improved three point shot. Up to 44.2% from a ghastly 30.7% a year ago, the surefire sophomore has a simple explanation.
“It’s just confidence,” Fox said following practice on Tuesday. “Shooting the ball with confidence every time. Shooting the ball like every shot is going to go in.”
In truth, Fox’s mechanics were never that far off from proficiency. We should expect some regression as he is on-fire in the month of November (62.5% from three) but there is no reason he can’t hover around 38-40%. It also helps that he is getting to the free throw line 3.5 more times per game this season.
Across the board, Fox is putting up improved numbers also averaging 7.1 assists and 4.4 rebounds, up from 4.4 and 2.8 respectively.
For once, it looks like the Kings made the right decision. Deciding to draft Fox and then moving from George Hill at last year’s trade deadline. Fox has the reins and confidence to become a top-level point guard for years.
[Rob]
I’m going to go with Jarrett Allen. Other players in the second year class are certainly better right now, but as far as the biggest leap, Allen going from a middling defensive presence last season to 2nd in the league in shots taken within 6 feet of rim is extremely impressive. He already has 3 double doubles this season (and 1 rebound shy of 3 more) after only having 4 all of last season. He’s taking more 3’s, and while they’re not falling right now, he’s already shown improvement in his stroke from when he entered the league. I’d like to see more aggression in his offensive game, but currently the shots he’s taking are all Morey-approved takes at the rim or 3-point line. Plus, the combination of the impressive rookie showing of this class last year, combined with the collective plateauing/regression this year does not leave many other options. Honorable mention to De’Aaron Fox who is almost singlehandedly carrying the Kings into being a respectable franchise for the first time in recent memory.
Which team has to make a move?
[Rob]
Any team that’s not the Warriors? Rockets obviously need more help on the wing, Thunder have needed more shooting ever since they moved to OKC, the Knicks are linked to any player with 2 legs, and some lunatics out there think that Kyrie and Tatum can’t coexist on the Celtics. But I’m going to go with the Pacers. The Pacers currently reside as the best team outside of the top tier of the East. That’s never a fun place to be. It’s also no secret that Indiana isn’t exactly a free agent destination (it’s nicknamed “Nap Town” for a reason). Trading for some guard and/or wing help around the core of Oladipo, Turner, and Sabonis could bump them up to that top tier and start making the East look like a more complete conference. Players like Rozier, Aminu, KCP, Mbah a Moute are all attainable players who will be free agents in the offseason. The Pacers will have a well of cap space and (correspondingly) a bevy of players on expiring contracts that may be attractive to teams looking to duck under the tax.
[Jared]
The Washington Wizards.
Honestly, I cannot remember a team with more star power being this mediocre and dysfunctional. The combination of John Wall and Bradley Beal gives the Wizards a top-5 backcourt in a league currently dominated by guards. Yet they have not been a threat to challenge for the East, even amongst the scraps LeBron left behind.
The Wizards have been at this for years now. Shuffling role players in and out, and turning over their coach. The three constants have been Wall, Beal and team executive Ernie Grunfeld (who drafted both). Something has got to give. Perhaps a top-5 coach could have coaxed the situation. But Scott Brooks certainly is not that. And even with one, this team as currently constructed is not getting past the second round in the East.
It’s time to split up this core. John Wall is 28-years old and due an exorbitant raise next year ($37.8 million) thanks to the 4 years, $169M supermax extension handed out by Washington last July. Now is the time to move on. He is just entering, or should be entering, his prime. There will be suitors despite his contract and at times apathetic play. Zach Lowe highlighted this in his piece on Wall on November 6th (courtesy of Second Spectrum stats).
“Last season, only Dirk Nowitzki and DeMarcus Cousins spent a higher percentage of court time than Wall standing still or walking, per Second Spectrum tracking data — a stat that set off alarm bells throughout the league and within the Wizards.”
For his talent, there are few that possess the speed of Wall. A team in desperate need of a star is likely to be interested. Cue the vultures surrounding Jimmy Butler – Houston, Miami – plus some other eager to please franchises such as the Lakers or Pelicans.
A deal can definitely get done for Wall, but will it? Odds are it’s the classic scapegoat who falls beneath the axe and we see Scott Brooks looking for a job, before major changes ultimately occur in the off-season.
Which new acquisition has had the biggest impact on their new team?
[Jared]
LeBron James.
With all due respect to Kawhi Leonard, this is the correct pick. Is it boring? Of course it is. But I refuse to succumb to greatness fatigue. Without James, the Lakers are certainly on the outside of the playoffs looking in. With James, they are currently the 7th seed with budding chemistry and a legitimate shot at staying there.
It is amazing to think that LeBron turns 34-years old this December. He is still clearly the best player in the league and putting up the usual numbers…27.6 points, 7.9 rebounds and 7.2 assists on a paltry 35.1 minutes per game. Sweet as candy, I tell ya.
Perhaps more importantly is the leadership he is providing for this young Lakers team. Perhaps no one said it as complete or explicitly as Josh Hart back in October.
“He’s our leader. He’s vocal. He does things by example. He’s the best player in the world…He’s out there. He’s competing every day. He’s talking to us making sure we’re working on those championship habits.” Hart said. “He knows more than anybody. Those little habits. That attention to detail can change an outcome of a game. It can win games it can lose games. He’s a vocal leader, but he goes out there and doesn’t just talk, he does it by example.”
James and the Lakers talent goes both ways. He is infusing them with confidence and leadership. Inversely, their enthusiasm and youth is energizing the 34-year old James. A perfect pairing that may end up all for naught while the domination of the Warriors continues. His arrival will at least add some spice to an otherwise boring first round matchup in the West.
[Rob]
As great as LeBron has been, you gotta go with team success and none have been more successful so far this season than Kawhi Leonard and the Toronto Raptors. Has there ever been a controversial trade so quickly validated as this one? From the jump this season, the Raptors have looked like the best team in the East and possibly the league. It forced Philadelphia to make foundational changes to their roster. It’s forcing Boston to sweat a bit after thinking they could sleepwalk to the 1 seed. Milwaukee beat the Raptors head to head, but a game without Giannis or Kawhi in it shouldn’t be counted as evidence of anything. And while Giannis may be the most unstoppable force in the league, Kawhi is the immovable object. The Raptors are +11.2 with him on the floor and he’s the #1 guy you want guarding the opposing team’s alpha dog.
What is your take on the Jimmy Butler trade?
[Rob]
Fantastic step 1 for the Sixers. I say step 1 because their need for outside shooting is only exacerbated by completing this trade. Subsequent trades or buyout candidates will be needed to replace the Ilyasova/Belinelli/Saric/Covington wing players that they had over the last season and change. But to compete in the East, the Sixers needed to make this trade. This sets them up not only for this year, but years to come assuming they re-sign Butler. In fact, according to Bobby Marks, the Sixers will still have $21M in cap space this summer to add another piece before re-signing Butler to the max using his Bird rights, so this Sixers team can add even more ammunition this summer. If Kawhi only stays one year in Toronto, then that only leaves Boston and Milwaukee as the Sixers’ immediate threat in the East.
A– for the Sixers.
For the Wolves, it’s tougher to grade. From Thibs’ perspective, this is the best offer they had presented by a mile. He gets two role players who can provide help today, and both are on extremely reasonable contracts. If I’m a GM, I consider Covington’s contracts to be one of the best in the league. $11.7M a year through 2022 for a 1st team All-defensive player who shot 37% from 3 last year. Saric is an intriguing young piece that is cap-controlled through 2020. Neither player is the missing piece the Wolves need, but neither was Jimmy Butler. All things considered, they could have done worse, but still should have gotten a first round pick instead of a settling for a second.
B- for the Wolves.
[Jared]
Finally.
The Jimmy Butler saga was actually not as dramatic as it was made out to be in the media. Butler was vocal about his desire to leave, but was never overtly confrontational in the media, at least. Now there is finally resolution and the landscape of the NBA has potentially changed (again).
76ers
Philadelphia has been on the hunt for a third star for quite some time now. This off-season they rightfully put their eggs in the basket of one LeBron James. But he was destined for Los Angeles all along. Overtures were made for others but they ultimately settled for a solid, if not unspectacular, addition of Wilson Chandler. While great for depth, he doesn’t quite possess the star power necessary to take Philly to the next level.
All of the assets acquired in the Hinkie era have been sitting, accumulating their annual interest. The free agent pickup of Robert Covington turning into an elite 3-and-D role player. While the willing patience of the process produced an ideal stretch four in Dario Saric. Both players being of proper age – Covington 27 and Saric 24 – to grow with the stardom of Embiid and Simmons over time. Both starters, neither stars.
In today’s NBA, it is rare to be able to acquire a star player without giving up a first round draft pick. The Philadelphia 76ers were able to accomplish this. Not because Minnesota wasn’t offered any first rounders, but because they refused them. This is not to say they didn’t give up players of value, because they did. But they got the best player in the trade without mortgaging their future.
Butler is a bonafide two way player and still only 29-years old. He actually fits nicely as a wing who can provide scoring and defense. The only worry is how well he’ll fit into the 76ers system, and his acceptance of Simmons having the ball the majority of the time. But if Butler can get past this, he instantly makes the Sixers a serious contender in the Eastern Conference. His contract extension, which Philadelphia at the moment seems willing to pay, is a story for another day.
For the foreseeable future the 76ers are a contender because of Jimmy Butler.
Grade: A-
Timberwolves
Oh, Thibs. You’re a beautiful old ball coach. But you know nothing of basketball operations.
But really, whose fault is this? Is it the coach who just wants the players in his rotation that give him a chance to win games? Or is it the forever ignorant owner empowering him?
Certainly, it is the latter. In this day and age, it’s preposterous to believe one person can manage both basketball operations and day-to-day coaching. Stan Van Gundy was finally relieved of both his duties this past off-season, while Doc Rivers willingly gave up the title of basketball operations two off-seasons ago. There is one man left standing for good reason.
Now this trade in a vacuum is not an absolute train wreck. Saric is only 24-years old and actually fits nicely next to Towns. Covington is a very good floor spacer and defender and only 27-years old. Theoretically a starting five of Teague-Wiggins-Covington-Saric-Towns is well distributed and can win some games while building for the future.
But context is important. When you have a chance to get multiple first round picks for what amounts to a one-year rental, you do it. Hell Blake Griffin got traded for one first rounder last year (albeit a lottery pick). The Timberwolves got offered four first round picks and turned it down. In today’s NBA that is absurd. I don’t care that the Rockets will “probably be good”. There are no guarantees. Chris Paul is 33-years old and due to the Stepien Rule, those picks would have been spread out over eight years. There is a good chance the Timberwolves would have gained serious return on one of those down the line. Not to mention, trade assets.
Given an opportunity like that and passing it up is exactly the kind of short-sighted move that keeps franchises in the doldrums.
Grade: C