Last week marked the halfway point in the NBA season, so Hard Knick Life took some time to make their picks on the current favorites to win the individual awards. Part 1 contains picks for Most Valuable Player, Rookie of the Year, and Coach of the Year. Part 2 coming soon will have picks for Defensive Player of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, and Most Improved Player.

 

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER

Jared’s Picks      

  1. James Harden
  2. Anthony Davis
  3. Giannis Antetokounmpo
  4. LeBron James
  5. Kawhi Leonard

At the time of writing our early season outlook, the Rockets seemed to be in an early season stalemate, owning a 7-7 record and sitting just outside the playoff picture with the 9th seed. Nothing too concerning.

Fast forward to December 9th and we had a more dire picture. Losing seven of their next eleven games, Houston dropped to 11-14, good for 14th out of 15th in the West. Nearly a third of the way through the season and the team that lost 17 games all of last season is now just 3 games away from that number.

Then James Harden happened. Since that point Harden has been on a rare offensive tear, even for the modern NBA. Over the past 19 games Harden has averaged 41.5 points per game to go with 8.8 assists and 7.3 rebounds. These aren’t empty stats either. Houston has gone 14-5 over this stretch, rising to 5th in the Western conference with an overall record of 25-19. The majority of this run without running mate Chris Paul who went down December 20th with hamstring injury.

Halfway through the season, Harden is averaging 35.4 points per game. A number that has not been maintained for a full NBA season since Kobe Bryant averaged the same in the 2005-06 season.

Once Chris Paul inevitably comes back, expect Harden’s numbers to drop a bit. But this stretch has effectively saved Houston’s season and put them firmly back in the playoff picture.

Only a heroic stretch like this could have put Harden ahead of an impressive pack of MVP candidates this year.

The old adage is your team has to be good to be an MVP candidate. What about making a bad team relevant? That’s exactly what Anthony Davis has done this year. With a better surrounding cast, Davis may unanimously be considered the second-best player in the game. Outdoing himself, Davis is getting it done on both ends. On offense he is averaging 29.4 points, 13.5 rebounds, 4.4 assists which are all career highs. On defense he’s averaging his usual 2.6 blocks and 1.8 steals per game. All of this while averaging just 2 turnovers per game. The Brow is the most efficient player in the game.

Rob and I talked about Giannis at length in our early season reactions. Since then, not much has changed. Giannis has continued to drop his usual numbers, 26.4 points, 12.5 rebounds, 6.0 assists. Not to mention, Milwaukee owns the top record in the Eastern conference as of this writing. Unfortunately for Giannis, Harden is having that important of a season so far.

We’ve seen what the Lakers are with (20-14) and without (4-7) LeBron James. Still out with a groin injury, LeBron was having a typical MVP caliber season averaging 27.3 points, 8.3 rebounds and 7.1 assists for a Lakers team that has no business being in the playoffs without him. All at the age of thirty-four.

The guy constantly getting overlooked, in this ranking and the NBA at large, is Kawhi Leonard. Widely considered a top-5 player due to his impact on both ends of the floor, Leonard has only cemented that status this year in Toronto. As the focal point of Toronto’s offense, Leonard is averaging a career high 27.6 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. All of this while being his normal dominant self on defense. Leonard gives the Raptors a legitimate shot to capture the East this year.

   Honorable Mention: Nikola Jokic, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Paul George

 

Rob’s Picks

  1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
  2. James Harden
  3. Anthony Davis
  4. Nikola Jokic
  5. LeBron James

When I started drafting my picks for this column about a week ago, Giannis was the clear MVP favorite. In that short amount of time, Harden has continued his tear, as Jared detailed above, and effectively made this a 2-man race. While Harden’s run is historic, hitting milestones that haven’t been touched since guys like Kobe, MJ, and Wilt, Giannis continues to do things no one has EVER done. The Greek Freak is currently rocking splits of over 26/12/6 and a true shooting percentage of 63%. Again, NO ONE in NBA history has accomplished that over an entire season. Not Kobe, not MJ, not Wilt. If Giannis keeps up his pace, he should continue to be the favorite (despite how Vegas feels).

Anthony Davis continues to shine in New Orleans, but gaudy numbers can only get you so far on a sub-500 team. Third on the ballot is about as high as he can hope for given the players ahead of him and the fact that his team has a .500 record in games he plays (1-4 in games he sits). He started the season neck and neck with Giannis, but has clearly been passed by the now perennial top-3 MVP finisher, James Harden.

Sidenote: Morey created a lot of buzz when he said an argument can be made that Harden the best offensive player ever, but from a pure mathematical perspective, particularly in terms of efficiency, the stats certainly make a case for him.

Some attention needs to be given to Nikola Jokic who currently spearheads the second-best team in the West and is certainly the most unique big man in the NBA. Only one big man has ever averaged his split of 19/10/7.6 and that was Wilt Chamberlain. Even his 7.6 assists per game alone has only been done by Wilt and Larry Bird. His ability to see passing lanes allows the offense to invert in ways no other team can match, save of course Draymond Green and the Warriors who can pretty much match or surpass any team in anything.

You know it’s been an odd NBA season when it’s looking like LeBron will finish either 5th in MVP voting, or depending how many games he ends up missing with a strained groin (11 and counting), off the ballot completely. For reference, LeBron hasn’t finished off the ballot since 2005, his second year in the league. The more games he misses, the more and more likely Kawhi or Paul George is to take his spot.

   Honorable Mention: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry

 

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

Jared’s Picks

  1. Luka Doncic
  2. DeAndre Ayton
  3. Jaren Jackson Jr.

Forget about Rookie of the Year. Luka Doncic might be an All-Star this year (and not just because Slovenians have fast fingers).

Concerns about Doncic’s lack of athleticism have vanished in his first NBA season. Bringing all the tools he displayed during the most dominant run in European basketball for a player his age, Luka looks like a franchise player already.

As alluded to in our pre-draft preview, Doncic is really just a 6’7” point guard. Operating the Mavericks’ offense the majority of the time, Doncic runs the team with patience and intelligence. He uses his size and creativity off the dribble to get open looks, including a license on James Harden’s patented step-back.

Averaging 20.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 5.1 assists he is truly doing it all for a Mavericks team that stands 13th in the conference despite a solid 20-24 record.

A bit of late-game theatrics helps as well. In just half a season in the NBA, Luka has already put together a highlight reel of clutchness.

Single-handedly stealing a game from Houston

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEjGXpmg9gk&feature=youtu.be&t=107

Dunking over Taj and hitting the go-ahead bucket to beat the Timberwolves

Sending the Mavericks to OT with a buzzer beater in Portland

All the success by Doncic is not to say that his fellow classmates are busts.

DeAndre Ayton is having the year we expected. Not quite at his 20/10 potential, Ayton is averaging 16.6 points and 10.6 rebounds per game. Ayton has shown that his physical dominance translates at the next level, and even flashed that jump shot (though not yet from three). He’ll need to get more disciplined on both ends of the floor, especially the defense end, but that’s to be expected for a 20-year old rookie.

Jaren Jackson Jr. and the Grizzlies were a pleasant surprise earlier this year when they got off to a hot 12-5 start and were actually the #1 seed in the West for all of one day. Back then Jackson Jr. was a leading candidate to win Rookie of the Year. But even during their losing streak since he has maintained his form. Jackson has flashed his potential earlier than expected, scoring 13.2 points and getting 4.7 rebounds per game while also shooting 33% from three. He has also added 1.6 blocks and 1 steal in just 25.5 minutes per game.

   Honorable Mention: Trae Young, Collin Sexton, Kevin Knox, Marvin Bagley, Wendell Carter Jr.

 

Rob’s Picks

  1. Luka Doncic
  2. Jaren Jackson Jr.
  3. DeAndre Ayton

With apologies to Ben Simmons, Luka Doncic is the obvious choice for rookie of the year. Not since Lillard unanimously won in 2013 has there been a rookie guard who has dominated the season quite like Luka has so far. To be clear, if the season were to end today, Luka should be the unanimous choice as well. He leads all qualifying rookies in usage rate (a key indicator in how much the offense predicates on his actions), per game and real plus minus. Luka is also third in rebounds and steals, and second in assists. The learning curve of a rookie point guard has always been known as the steepest of any in the NBA, but Luka has quickly accomplished in 3 months what many guards take years to develop. Of course, it helps being 6’7.

Runner up goes to Jaren Jackson Jr, who has provided the Grizzlies with key rotation minutes alongside both Marc Gasol and JaMychal Green. He leads all rookies in DRPM and has shown potential in shooting from distance. JJJ looks to be the centerpiece of the Grizzlies future, especially as the steady decline of Conley and Gasol continues.

Deandre Ayton takes the final spot due to his impressive statline of 16/10/2 and 1 block, even though some of it certainly seems to be a case of bad team/good stats. The Suns offense is pretty much the same with him on or off the court. Still, impressive numbers for a 20-year-old rookie.

   Honorable Mention: None

 

COACH OF THE YEAR

Jared’s Picks

  1. Mike Malone
  2. Dave Joerger
  3. Nate McMillan

There are some very good candidates this year. Denver consistently battling the Warriors for the #1 seed in the West forces my hand.

Malone has taken a Nuggets team that may otherwise be fighting just to make the playoffs, and cultivated them into a Western conference power player. The Nuggets currently sit second in the West with a 29-14 record.

Every coach needs good players, and Nikola Jokic has been phenomenal for him this year. Doing his best Bill Walton impersonation (on offense anyway), Jokic is averaging 19.7 points, 10.1 rebounds and 7.6 assists. Far more than Walton ever did (5 assists) who many consider the best passing big man to ever play.

In the NBA era of “pace and space”, Malone has trended in the opposite direction. To highlight Jokic as his best player, and put him in the best position to excel, Malone has slowed down the offense. The Nuggets currently rank 27th out of 30th in the NBA in pace. A lot of that has to do with putting the ball in Nikola Jokic’s hands.

By transforming Jokic into the fulcrum of the offense, that has opened up Malone to start Jamal Murray at point guard. Though he is really more of a combo than a true point. Murray himself having a career year averaging 18.5 points and 4.9 assists per game.

Perhaps most impressively, Malone is doing this with a couple of key injuries. Gary Harris has missed half the season while Will Barton has missed nearly the entire season, just returning on January 12th for the first time since the second game of the season. In their place, Malik Beasley and Monte Morris have stepped up in major ways, both averaging career highs of 10.2 and 9.9 respectively.

Malone has proven that he can win despite key players out, elevating the games of others on the roster. With Harris and Barton both having returned recently, Denver has a deep roster to make a run for the rest of the season.

What Dave Joerger has done in Sacremento is beyond impressive. I’m not sure many predicted the Kings to have 23 wins all of this year, let alone at the halfway point. Being two games above .500 was nice in November, but telling in January. De’Aaron Fox is having a career year, on his way to NBA stardom, and Marvin Bagley is coming along nicely. If he can keep this up, Joerger would have done a tremendous coaching job. All of this despite the constant turmoil surrounding the Sacramento organization.

Going under the radar this year is Nate McMillan. Last year’s Cinderella story, the Pacers unexpectedly became the 5th seed in the East and made the playoffs. McMillan has actually expanded upon that success, which some thought was a fluke. The Pacers rank 2nd this year in defensive rating and hold the 3rd best record in the Eastern conference with a record of 29-14.

Honorable Mention: Nick Nurse, Mike Budenholzer, Kenny Atkinson, Gregg Popovich

 

Rob’s Picks

  1. Mike Malone
  2. Mike Budenholzer
  3. Gregg Popovich

Popovich suffers from voter fatigue despite being the greatest coach in the history of the game (and now 3rd all-time in wins). He should get one more before he retires so he officially has the most COY awards in NBA history, breaking his ties with Pat Riley, Don Nelson, and Hubie Brown. And he deserves it this year, after many projected the Spurs to finish in the lottery. He’s still among the most innovative coaches out there. As Zach Lowe pointed out recently, the Spurs rank LAST in the NBA in shots at the rim AND 3s, yet are still finding ways to win. Just doesn’t seem possible but Pop continues to do it all while on pace for another ho-hum 47-win season.

Coach Bud has a chance to take the top spot by end of season, but if Giannis really does end up winning MVP, it would probably detract from his chances a little bit. As we discussed here at the beginning of the season, the fixes the Bucks needed to make were obvious. But just because it is obvious does not mean executing it will be easy (ask former coach Jason Kidd). Coach Bud has seamlessly changed the dynamic of the offense by having more shooters at the perimeter and allowing Giannis to dominate games. While it is impressive, it’s a bit of a handicap and the reason why I can’t give him the top spot just yet.

That spot belongs to Coach Mike Malone, whose most impressive accomplishment prior to this season was being a coach that Demarcus Cousins actually liked. Now, his team is on pace to win 55 games, currently holds the #2 seed in the West, and is the only Western Conference team that is top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating. No one had any idea the Nuggets could be this good. A small market team with a history of mediocrity does not do much to get the attention of NBA “experts.” But Malone has radicalized this team by relying on their bevy of big men. They slipped a bit to 8th in the league in rebounds per game after being top 5 most of the season. They’re 6th in points in the paint and 1st in second chance points. Each of those stats relate to one another and are mostly dependent on the effectiveness of a team’s frontcourt. One stat that’s less associated with those rankings? Being 3rd in the whole freakin’ NBA in assists per game. And that is all because of their big Serbian, Nikola Jokic, and the man behind the curtain, Coach Mike Malone.

Honorable Mention: Kenny Atkinson, Nate McMillan